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Criminal Justice Review
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Characteristics of Homicide Events and the Decline in Homicide Clearance

A Longitudinal Approach to the Dynamic Relationship, Chicago 1966-1995

Yili Xu

Platts Research and Analytics, xuguolao{at}yahoo.com

Following the national pattern, homicide clearance rates in Chicago have continuously declined for several decades. This study focuses on the influence of changing characteristics of homicide events on the decline in homicide clearances. Most previous studies are not suitable to address the decline issue because of their methodological limitations. The decline is a longitudinal process and a cross-sectionally identified relationship could be a temporary association at a particular point in time. The current study investigates all the key relationships with two longitudinal methods: pooled cross-sectional time series and ARIMA and by controlling for community-level factors. The results show that homicides involving concomitant felony, Latino victims, strangers, and vehicle body location are significantly and consistently related to the decline, whereas other previously identified predictors do not remain significant over time. The current paper also explains how effects of homicide event variables can be translated into actions and help improve clearance outcome.

Key Words: homicide clearance • decline in homicide clearance • characteristics of homicide event • pooled cross-sectional time series • ARIMA

This version was published on December 1, 2008

Criminal Justice Review, Vol. 33, No. 4, 453-479 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/0734016808320693
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